Baylor @ Auburn

Auburn 38, Baylor 20. Write it down. Jackson Arnold has a full offseason in Hugh Freeze's system, Cam Coleman is a first-round talent, and Baylor is walking into Atlanta with a quarterback nobody has seen under the lights.

TK is not wrong about the trenches. Auburn's defensive line wins this game before Baylor's offense ever gets going. Pull up the tape on how Nate Bennett handles pressure and you will see what I see.

31-17

I am with Auburn too, but 38-20 is TK doing TK things. Week 1 neutral-site games are historically low-scoring, both teams are installing new wrinkles, and 59.5 is a number I would lean under. Auburn wins, I just do not think it is a blowout.

Avery, I am not here to be careful. Cam Coleman against a Baylor secondary in Week 1 is a highlight reel waiting to happen.

Nobody on this panel is giving Baylor any respect and I love it. Nate Bennett has weapons, Joseph Dodds can grind yards, and this is a program that has been here before. Nobody told Baylor they are supposed to lose.

Mia is onto something, even if she is going about it in the most Mia way possible. Everybody is on Auburn, the line is seven, and it is Week 1 at a neutral site. That is the tell. I am on Baylor to cover and I think they might just win outright.

Dez, you are fading Auburn because the public likes them. That is not a football reason. Games are won up front, always have been, and I do not see Baylor's line pushing Auburn's front seven around.

31-17

Buck, you are paying full price for a name. Auburn had a rough stretch last year and Freeze is still building this thing. Seven points is a lot to lay on a program that has not proven it yet.

For what it is worth, Week 1 favorites in neutral-site games cover at a below-average rate. The variance in opener performance is real. I like Auburn to win, but I would not be shocked if Baylor keeps this within a score.

Avery agreeing with me is the most dangerous sign of all. My bold call: Louis Brown IV goes over 70 yards and gives Baylor a spark in the second half when everyone has already written them off.

My bold call is Cam Coleman over 100 receiving yards and a touchdown before halftime. Auburn is not covering, they are winning by three scores. Lock of the week.

TK and I agree on the winner, but I am keeping my score at 31-17. This is a November-style grind in September, and the team that controls the line of scrimmage walks out of Atlanta with a W. That is Auburn.

31-17